The COVID-19 pandemic is characterized by a recurring sequence of peaks and troughs. This article proposes a regime-switching unobserved components (UC) approach to model the trend of COVID-19 infections as a function of this ebb and flow pattern. Estimated regime probabilities indicate the prevalence of either an infection up- or down-turning regime for every day of the observational... https://www.eleanorscholz.com/product-category/food-service-industrial-business-2/